I’ve told this story before. On University Street in Seattle, Victor Rosselini had his flagship restaurant, the 410. My mentor, Bob Breskovitch, invited me there to discuss the topic of assisted suicide with five catholic priests. They taught me the importance of scrutiny. Of questioning your own assumptions, listening to others rather than arguing your position, analysing objectively before you decide. It was a life changing lunch.我以前讲过一个段子。我在一个牛逼的饭店，跟我老板和几位神父吃了个午饭，聊了一些严肃的话题。他们给我上了一课，教我要懂得自省，多听多想，别自以为是，别狂妄自大。这饭我现在都觉得吃的很值。

As a young fisherman in the Northwest, far away from my native Norway, diversification was not high on my agenda. As far as I was concerned, diversification was a rich man’s game. Wealth preservation was something you could do once you had actual wealth to preserve. And since I didn’t have a penny to my name, I was going to focus on getting there. For years, I didn’t think about anything other than building American Seafoods. I was young. Determined. And surrounded by amazing people. 年轻的时候我就是穷打鱼的，背井离乡，想不了多远。那时我觉得，玩钱那是有钱人干的事。俺啥都木有，想个屁的投资。那个时候我想的就是怎么挣钱，想着怎么给美国人整海鲜。不过那会穷是穷，但是年轻啊，虎的很，还认识了一帮牛逼的小伙伴。

In one way, I still stand by my younger self. If you’re certain about something, it pays off to focus and invest everything you have in it. But uncertainty and doubt build as time goes by. The more experience you have, the more you realize that nothing is certain. Everything is a bet with some associated probabilities. I should know—almost 80 percent of our portfolio was in oil and gas when the oil price went negative after Covid-19 hit.

有时候我觉得我一点都没老。只要认准了，我还是喜欢一把梭了。一般人梭了以后，难免焦虑。玩多了以后，我发现没什么事情是一定的，啥都是个赌，只是赢的概率不同而已。你想想石油以前多赚钱，等新冠来了我才发现，我他喵的怎么80%的资产都在油气上，亏大发了，肝疼。

The pandemic. Nobody was prepared, despite the numerous warnings from scientists who said it was always a question of “when”, not “if.” Like most events, pandemics are rare in a lifetime, but frequent throughout history. Norway hadn’t experienced a pandemic in five generations, so it was hard to imagine. But it still happened.

新冠这黑天鹅谁想得到。虽然科学家说瘟疫不是有没有的问题，而是啥时候的问题，但是人一辈子能碰到几回？虽然历史上瘟疫不少，但是在挪威，我爷爷的爷爷都没碰到过，结果好死不死，让我赶上了。

There are many benefits from owning a few companies in different industries, but the price declines for all companies in a crisis. As we saw in March last year. Investors use bonds to diversify their portfolios. Norway’s entire sovereign wealth fund is designed that way and it has worked well in recent history. But what if equities and bonds fall concurrently, which they have done for long periods historically? Before the Federal Reserve stepped in with unprecedented measures, that was about to happen one year ago. (责任编辑：admin)