耍钱的都知道，鸡蛋不要放一个篮子里，但是地震一来，所有的篮子都不安全。去年三月股市地震，大家买债券来避险。挪威的整个主权财富基金也跟着学，这几年效果还可以。但是你想想，万一股市和债市一起崩盘呢？咋整？这事上古时期也是有过的。而且其实这一轮已经有了一点苗头，要不是美联储出来疯狂放水救了场子，鬼知道最后怎么收场。

And it will probably happen again. And what happens if the central banks cannot stop the fall? What happens to the monetary system if people start questioning the stability of the reserve currency? Again, this has happened many times in history.

大伙合计合计，这事要是在来咋整？要是美联储的水也枯了，后面要怎么玩？万一大家伙开窍了，不买美元的账了，咱们手里的钞票怎么办？别以为我在吓你，这种事历史上也不是一次两次了。

I respond to today’s challenges as I would when I was a young man. I will always prefer to be a focused entrepreneur rather than a diversified investor, albeit with a tad bit more risk management and infinitely more academic rigour around me than I had earlier in my career. One of my favourite questions to people who ask me about the risk that’s inherent to our ideas: What about the risk of losing out on the upside?

别看我年纪大了，就以为我玩不动了。我还是喜欢找一个好场子玩梭哈，不喜欢东打一枪，西放一炮。虽然我现在下注谨慎多了，但是这不是代表我不敢下注。老有人问我，玩这么大不怕吗？我一般就给他怼回去，你看我赢这么多爽不爽？

Young professionals know they are risking their careers if they say yes to what eventually becomes bad investments. That’s the name of the game. What you should really get fired for is saying no and losing out to once in a lifetime opportunities. Bitcoin may still go to zero. But it can also become the core of a new monetary architecture. If so, one bitcoin may be worth millions of dollars. The asymmetry is interesting to a portfolio. People who know the most about bitcoin believe its future success is nearly inevitable. Whereas the other camp thinks that its failure is equally certain. Status quo is not possible.

小年青都知道，要是赌一个风险高的东西，他们可能会失业，但是这就是赌博游戏。你永远谨小慎微不敢下注，那你失去的可能就是一生才有一次的机会，那才是真正的菜鸟。比特币这个局可能输得你一无所有，但是也可能成为财富核心，让你赚的盆满钵满，提前退休。比特币这个局也很极端，信的人双膝跪地，信币哥，得永生，不信的人认为迟早崩盘归零，集体跳楼。

In the past months I have met many new people. One of them was Jack Mallers at Strike. He’s almost forty years younger than me. Experiencing his energy and enthusiasm was special. I felt old in his company, but also very emboldened: I lost out on mobile communications. I didn’t invest in internet companies. It was only recently that I started to invest in and build software companies (and I love it!) When I realized how much brainpower goes into Bitcoin, I saw the future in the making. (责任编辑：admin)